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Baht/$ 34.02/07 (Bid/Ask)
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13900
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TRADE
PHUSADEE ARUNMAS AND SOMRUEDI BANCHONGDUANG
The Commerce Ministry has projected export growth of 15-19% next year to a total dollar value of US$200 billion despite growing challenges posed by the US financial crisis.
Commerce Minister Chaiya Sasomsab said yesterday that the target was based on information supplied by Thai trade officials and commercial counsellors worldwide. It also reflects assumptions that the baht will trade at around 34 to the dollar and Dubai crude prices would average US$98 per barrel next year.
The forecast is in sharp contrast to one issued by Kasikorn Research, a Kasikornbank affiliate, which said growth would slow to single digits in 2009 from its estimate of 15-16% this year.
Kasikornbank president Prasarn Trairatvorakul said Thai export growth would certainly ease next year due to the US economic slowdown. "Bank export loan growth in turn will follow export growth."
As a result, he said, local bankers were monitoring their export clients closely for fear of rising credit risk.
In addition to slowing demand, he said, exporters also would face risks from exchange-rate volatility and rising operating costs.
Mr Chaiya admitted that exports this year were unlikely to achieve 25% growth as forecast earlier, as global financial turmoil would probably dampen demand. Shipments this year are expected to expand between 15% and 20%.
"Agricultural products and food will lead the growth in shipments in 2009," he said. "We expect farm prices to remain high."
Under the ministry's plan to drive export growth, shipments of agricultural products and food are forecast to increase from 17% of total exports this year to 19% next year.
The government also plans to increase exports to Asean, China, India, the Middle East, Eastern Europe and Africa to 65-67% of the total next year from 65.3% this year as a way to offset the impact of slower demand in developed economies.
The US, the EU and Japan currently account for 34.7% of Thailand's overseas shipments.
Mr Chaiya said Thai exports to the United States were still forecast to grow by 7% this year but the sting of the financial crisis would be felt next year, when growth is expected to drop to 3%.
Rachane Potjanasuntorn, director-general of the Export Promotion Department, believes shipments to the US could remain strong next year as economic stimulus would be the first priority of the new US president.
Aat Pisanwanich, director of the Centre for International Trade Studies of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said that Thailand's exports next year would encounter increased challenges, particularly from an economic slowdown in the EU and Japan.
"Expansion to Asian markets is the right direction," he said, calling for the government to study in-depth trade information in new markets. "An intelligence unit is a must to monitor and provide in-depth information to the Thai government."
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