Things to come Nick Wilgus The Wintel revolution Over the last ten years, Database has written a great deal about personal computers, but most of it boils down to one story: the Microsoft-Intel partnership, otherwise known as the Wintel Duopoly. For fans of PCs, nothing else comes close. The last ten years belonged to both these companies, in one way or another. The most significant piece of hardware was Intel's microprocessor, which made it all possible; the most significant piece of software was Windows. Feeding off each other, these two companies fueled and profited the most - from the PC revolution. Vapourware, bloatware, feature-rich, Internet-enabled, faster, bigger, better - we have Wintel to thank for these things. And it is these things which will be their undoing. Consider: plans for Windows 2000 call for a computer program containing 40 to 50 million lines of code. That amount is so staggering, and so unmanageable, that it may very well collapse under its own weight. Why so many? More features. More features equates with more reasons to upgrade, to continue on the Upgrade Path _ to continue to put money in the Wintel coffers. That's a clever bit of marketing that has kept these companies consistently in the black, posting enormous profits. There's every indication that lowly 'end users' - you and me - are fed up, exhausted even, from this incessant Upgrade-ism. We want something that works; we want quality; we don't need more features because we don't use most of the ones we have. And what's the point of building a faster microprocessor when the operating system on top of it becomes more bloated and slower than ever? Intel is not without its share of problems. Like Microsoft, it too tries to add features and persuade users that upgrading is necessary. And now it is facing some stiff competition at last from other chipmakers like AMD and Cyrix. Intel and Microsoft have enjoyed monopolies on their respective domains, and have been able to maintain high prices for their products, but that's changing. Intel has been the first to suffer: AMD continually matches performance at lower prices, forcing the price curve down. And now Microsoft will be seeing its own bit of competition in the form of the Linux operating system - which is free. If these past ten years have been mostly about hardware and stunning advances in hardware ability, the next ten will be about software - and Linux will most likely lead the way. Linux is part of the Open Source Software (OSS) movement: that is, software for which the underlying code is open to one and all. Anyone can view, modify, improve - and many have, and continue to do so. The resulting product is the work of literally thousands of programmers. It is this - OSS - that will profoundly change the landscape over the next ten years. Companies like Microsoft that keep their code secret and charge high prices for the end product will have a hard time competing with the free or nearly-free products that OSS brings. In recognition of this trend, just about every major company in the industry had shown backing of one sort or another for Linux and the OSS movement. The only major exception has been Microsoft - for obvious reasons. But Microsoft will have to take this Linux challenge seriously if it hopes to remain relevant, especially when corporations can save vast amounts of money by removing Windows and putting Linux to use instead. Don't expect to see Microsoft change that much, for big companies rarely do. But with the threat of real competition, do expect to see some much-needed improvements. Windows might actually get smaller and more manageable and do what it's supposed to do without a lot of hype and pie-in-the-sky promises. It will most likely get cheaper - software in general will get cheaper. The PC revolution may be over, and that's another factor that will influence the next ten years. Microsoft, preparing for this, has created what it calls 'Window CE' - a version of Windows for small, handheld devices. These devices will become increasingly popular and may begin to replace the cumbersome and complicated PCs from which they sprang. The Internet is another factor. As its value grows with the increased number of possible services (data storage? calendar management? virtual offices? customised newspapers? television channels?), so too will demand - to be plugged in, connected, exchanging data with all sorts of devices that will be far cheaper than today's PCs. For both Intel and Microsoft, to be part of this new revolution - and to profit by it - will require better quality products at cheaper prices. There are, for example, a number of alternatives to Windows CE, some of which sell much better. If Microsoft wants that market, it will have to do better. If Intel wants to supply the processors for the billions of expected "devices" that will be sold, it too will have to lower prices and improve quality. Will the next ten years be Wintel Duopoly, Part II? Or will Linux and AMD upset the apple cart? Time will tell. Nick Wilgus is the Chief Sub-editor for Database and can be reached via e-mail to nick@bangkok.com. Back to top